There's three games left in the NWSL regular season (four for Seattle, but they already clinched a playoff spot so forget about them). The Houston Dash are currently in sixth place, five points back of the crucial fourth playoff spot. Below are the scenarios for the Dash to make the playoffs for the first time in team history.
Scenarios based on Houston winning final three games, ending with 29 points. Two of the following scenarios must occur, current points in parentheses.
Portland Thorns FC (22 points)
- Earn no more than seven points in remaining games (two wins, one draw: 29 points)
- Dash hold head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- Remaining schedule: @SBFC, vs. WAS, @WNYF
FC Kansas City (25 points)
- Earn no more than three points (one win: 28 points) or no more than four points (one win, one draw: 29 points) and lose +11 goal differential advantage
- Head-to-head tiebreaker tied (1-1-1), FCKC goal differential is +8 GD and Dash are at -3
- Remaining schedule: vs. BOS, vs. WAS, @SBFC
Chicago Red Stars (28 points)
- Earn zero points or no more than one point (one draw: 29 points) and lose +10 goal differential advantage
- Dash would tie head-to-head tiebreaker with a win in final game (1-1-1), Chicago goal differential is +7
- Remaining schedule: vs. WNYF, @WNYF, vs. HOU
Washington Spirit (28 points)
- Earn zero points
- Dash lose head-to-head tiebreaker (0-2-1)
- Remaining schedule: @FCKC, @PTFC, vs. SRFC
If the Dash don't win all three but manage two wins and a draw (finishing with 27 points), they can still make it in with Portland earning no more than five points and FC Kansas City getting no more than one point (or two points and somehow losing their advantage in goal differential). In this scenario, however, Western New York (currently with 19 points) and Sky Blue FC (18 points and head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston) could leapfrog the Dash if either team won their remaining games.
You can read the tiebreaking procedures here if this didn't confuse you enough already. For our purposes though, head-to-head (first) and goal differential (second) are the only likely tiebreakers that would need to be used.
