The Dynamo didn’t receive any boost to their playoff ambitions on Wednesday as the Portland Timbers went on the road and secured a 1-0 win over Real Salt Lake at Rio Tinto Stadium. With the win, Portland is now six points ahead of the Dynamo with two games remaining in the regular season. The San Jose Earthquakes sit between the Dynamo and Portland, in seventh place with 44 points. With two games left, here is what the Dynamo need to have a chance to qualify for the playoffs:
- The Dynamo must win each of their final two games, beginning Sunday against the Seattle Sounders, and the season finale on Oct. 25 at Vancouver. Two wins would lift the Dynamo to 47 points (13-13-8).
- The Portland Timbers must lose each of their final two games – Saturday at LA Galaxy and Oct. 25 at home against Colorado. If Portland gains a win or tie in either of its final two games, the Dynamo will be eliminated from playoff contention.
- The San Jose Earthquakes must gain no more than three points over their final two games – Friday at home against Sporting Kansas City and Oct. 25 at FC Dallas. If San Jose gains four or more points from its final two games, the Dynamo will be eliminated.
- If the Dynamo win their last two games and end the season tied with Portland, Houston would likely hold the tiebreaker advantage. The clubs would each have 13 wins (first tiebreaker) and the Dynamo would have a better goal difference than the Timbers (currently both clubs are -4).
- If the Dynamo win their last two games and end the season tied with San Jose, the clubs would each have 13 wins (first tiebreaker). But the Earthquakes currently have a six-goal advantage in goal difference over the Dynamo (San Jose is +2, Houston is -4). If San Jose and Houston end the season tied with 47 points, the Dynamo must make up the six-goal deficit in goal difference over the next two games. If the clubs are still tied after the goal difference tiebreaker, the next tiebreaker is goals scored, and the Dynamo (41 goals) currently have the edge over San Jose (39 goals).
The most simply way to approach the weekend as a Dynamo fan is root for a Dynamo win over Seattle on Sunday and hope the Earthquakes and Timbers both fall in their games on Friday and Saturday, respectively. If that happens, Houston will enter the final game of the season on Oct. 25 at Vancouver with a chance for the playoffs.
Note: Real Salt Lake is tied with the Dynamo and could conceivably end the season tied with the Dynamo with two wins. But Houston (-4) holds the edge in goal difference over Real Salt Lake (-7). Similarly, the Dynamo could pull even with fifth-place Seattle (47 points), but the Sounders would hold the first tiebreaker (wins).
